M·CAM Financial Risk Modeling Highlighted in Futurist Publication

Date:  Tue, 2009-09-08

M·CAM Financial Risk Modeling Highlighted in Futurist Publication

The Futurist – September–October 2009. A New End, A New Beginning by John L. Petersen.

Excerpt:

“Predicting the future is a fool’s errand. It is fraught with so much complexity and uncertainty that the best one can do with integrity is to array potential alternatives – scenarios – across the horizon, and then try to think about what might be done if one of those alternative worlds materializes.

Scenario planning has certainly been an effective discipline, helping many organizations to imagine potentialities that probably otherwise wouldn’t have shown up in their field of view. But as I facilitate organizations going through these exercises, the little, nagging voice in the back of my head is not asking, “What is the array of possible futures?” Rather, it is always wondering, “What is the future really going to be?” We want concreteness. We want predictions.

My colleague David Martin outlined the financial dominoes that were going to fall in a talk at The Arlington Institute in July 2006. Implicit in his treatise is the collapse of the U.S. and global financial systems, but again, it’s one thing to hear such views and quite another to really believe them.”

For the complete article, click HERE